The Tennessee Titans are seeking to snap a six-game losing streak in Week 18 with a third straight road win over the Jacksonville Jaguars – and a fourth win in their last five games in Jacksonville. As of Wednesday's NFL odds at BetMGM, the Titans are a 6.5-point underdog for the winner-take-all divisional showdown.
Here are four NFL betting trends for Saturday's game:
Jaguars at Home
From 2004-07, the Jaguars went 19-11-2 against the spread in home games. Their 62.5-percent home cover rate was tied for the second-best in the NFL over that time; only the San Diego Chargers (70.3%) were better at home.
Over the next 14 seasons (2008-21), the Jaguars covered in 35% of their home games, by far the worst rate in the NFL. They covered in at least three consecutive games only twice over that time and only once had a home ATS winning streak of at least four games.
But now the Jaguars are one of the hottest home bets in the league. They're on a three-game ATS winning streak at TIAA Bank Field, covering by an average of seven points.
Trevor Lawrence as the Favorite
Trevor Lawrence started 34 games at Clemson. The Tigers were favored in 32 of those games, approximately 70% of which they covered the spread.
Lawrence has been the favorite only six times in 33 career NFL starts. The Jaguars are 1-5 against the spread in those games, with their lone cover coming last week against the Texans.
In their only other Lawrence start when favored by more than six points, the Jaguars lost outright, 13-6 against the Texans in Week 5.
This isn't the same Trevor Lawrence as earlier this season or last year, but the rarity of this betting spot for the second-year quarterback and the Jaguars is still worth noting. In their last 75 games, the Jaguars have been favored by more than six points only three times.
First-Half Unders
Despite a late-season surge – 21-10-1 in Weeks 15 and 16 – league-wide first-half unders will finish in the red for the fourth time in five seasons. However, one sweet spot for first-half unders has remained intact as it heads toward a third straight season in the black.
Since 2020, first-half unders are 103-77-7 (.572) when the total is 21 or lower. The under in Titans' games specifically are 7-3-2 over that time, including 5-2-2 this season.Â
As of Wednesday, the Titans-Jaguars first-half total is 20.5.
Titans vs. First-Half Spread
In last week's trends, I noted the Titans' recent struggles against the first-half spread – in three first-half ATS losses in four games, they were failing to cover by an average of seven points – after nearly three full seasons of first-half dominance. (From late December 2019 through Week 11 of the 2022 season, they covered in 67.4% of first halves, the best rate in the league.
While they did cover against the Cowboys in Week 17, it required Kevin Byard's 28-yard interception return – with 12 seconds remaining – to set up a field goal on the final play of the first half.
A cover is a cover; tickets cashed for Titans +6 bettors. Still, it's worth noting what was required for those tickets to cash and temporarily buck a potential trend.
You can view all updated odds for Titans-Jaguars and all NFL games at the BetMGM's online sportsbook.
